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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

The Inguri River Option

Georgia would have a tough time retaking Abkhazia on its own for a couple of reasons. First, the widest part of the the disputed territory is at the current defacto border on the Inguri River. Any serious assault would have to get across the river into what is referred to as the Gali sector. Most of the bridges were destroyed for this reason during the fighting. There has been a number of rebuilding projects and lots of makeshift footbridges constructed, many by families skirting the Inguri River boundry. However, there are very few points of access for a mechanized or armored assualt en mass.

Even if Georgian forces were able to get across the river delta and penetrate the Gali sector in sufficient numbers, before the Abkhazian units could get their units into the fight, they would likely bog down again at the Gali Canal. The Gali Canal, a few miles north of the Inguri River is another line of choke points with scattered bridges and additional Abkhazian positions. These two waterways, the Ingury River and the Gali Canal would at least slow down, but likely stall any Georgian advance into Abkhazia via the south. Moreover, if Georgian units were to penetrate the Gali sector, they might be able to keep it, but advancing beyond the Gali Canal becomes more difficult because the terrain narrows and the distance between the seashore and the mountains create a geographic bottleneck that would further focus any potential line of advance. Abkhazian units would be able to concentrate their limited forces and trap the Georgians before they could advance as far as Ochamchira.

Ultimately if Georgian forces were willing to take the casualties, they could throw wave after wave of its troops across the Ingury River bridges, assuming the Abkhazians didn't catch wind of Georgian forces massing on the Zugdidi side of the river border, and destroy the few operational bridges. However, they would have to do it all over again at the Gali Canal. It would likely be a very costy advance, one that few governments today are willing to accept.

4 Comments:

Anonymous alpay orcan Ejbek said...

Georgians have to understand that Abkhazia is our homeland Apsuvas and Abazins alike; that is why it is called Abkhazia and as previous war has shown it won't be only the Abkhazians living at our homeland that they will have to fight. I was 17 by that time and could not make it but no way I am missing that next time which I expect in coming two years definite. I would like to see you there filming again,you will more likely encounter many heroic deeds and dead Georgians in Inguri River. Love from Apsni, great work.
Areira Ejbek

10:03 PM  
Anonymous Sukhumi said...

Apsuas have to understand that Abkhazia is a homeland to many peoples, not just Apsuas. The fascist regime established by Apsuas since 1993 with Russian help won't last long and the perpetrators of the ethnic cleansing against the Georgian population will be brought to justice. Out of 250,000 Georgians there are only 40 or 50 thousands left, living repressed and humiliated; the others have fled the horrors of the genocide. Throughout all history Georgia fought back more numerous enemies, the Russian backed Apsua murderers won't go unpunished for ever. Peace to all peacefull people, including Georgians and Apsua. Death to Apsua and North Caucasus terrorists and their Russian masters.

5:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If there was a genocide how is it possible for 50 thousand Georgians to stay in Abkhazia 14 years after the war and do you know the number of Georgians who fought in Abkhazian army against the so called liberator Georgian Army of urs? Yes correct Abkhazia is home to so many other nations too. But it is our home under Abkhazian flag. And if Georgia tries to change it, history will repeat itself once more.

11:48 PM  
Anonymous Sukhumi said...

Out of 250,000 Georgians only 50,000 remain. Does not that tell you anything, anonymous? And 99% of those who stay are in the tiny southernmost district of Abkhazia, like a ghetto, all those years resisting Apsua authorities and surviving the raids of Apsua terrorists. Abkhazia is the home of more people currently outside Abkahzia than those inside. Do you think they forget their homeland? All those expelled will return, as soon as Georgia will wipe you fascist rascals from our blessed land. All nations in Georgia which is building true democracy with the help of western counties will leave in peace, including Abkhazia. You fascist and your Russian master are welcome in hell, not in Abkhazia.

10:56 AM  

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